News broke last week that future historians (assuming the human race survives) will look back on and say, “Aha! Right there! That’s where they really f’d up!” The Trump administration approved deals for the U.S. to sell nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia to build power plants. I would expect Saudi Arabia to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty shortly after the first plant comes online. After all, if you’ve already got everything money can buy, I guess the final item on the list is an atomic weapon.
This decision was made with no input from Congress or the American people. My guess is that the justification will be: ‘The Saudis want nuclear power and if we didn’t build it for them they’d have gone to the Russians or the Chinese. Which is fairly sound reasoning on a certain level, I guess. Still, it would’ve been nice to have the conversation as I don’t think that issue came up in the last Presidential elections.
I understand the arguments for nuclear power to electrify a nation and combat climate change. The plants we’ll be assisting the Saudi’s with will be dual use, which means they could also provide the fuel for weapons. As their archenemy Iran is nuclear capable and their frenemy Israel already has nukes, it would make strategic sense for Saudi Arabia to also possess them.
I’m not going to argue on Saudi Arabia’s fitness to have nuclear weapons as they are a sovereign state and other sovereign states have withdrawn from the NPT. For the sake of argument. it makes no difference their religion or form of government; but, Saudi Arabia possessing dual use technology raises the odds of catastrophe.
Each new state with a nuclear weapon raises the odds of nuclear war. It’s simple math. Increasing the odds would be so many states in such close proximity that the window of decision-making in a nuclear crisis is significantly shortened raising the chance of a fatal miscalculation.
How will Saudi Arabia’s neighbors react? My guess is that Turkey will feel the strategic need for its own nuclear deterrent. If Turkey has one, Egypt won’t want to feel left out. So the odds of nuclear war will become greater still.
If the end goal is to indeed electrify the Middle East using nuclear power. it would be nice if Russia, China, France and the U.S. committed to those plants being single use. I realize the world doesn’t have enough problems but this should be a no brainer. It’s also worth pointing out that Saudi Arabia gets a lot of sun and has some of the highest grade silica sand for manufacturing solar chips found in the world – I’m just guessing here, but Saudi Arabia could easily power itself and its neighbors with solar energy.
I’m assuming Congress will be doing its job and asking questions like, “What the fuck is going on with you guys transferring nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia without discussing it with us first?”
It used to be something like nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would send waves of panic through the American people and politicians. The spread of nuclear technology has barely been discussed as the media focuses on Trump’s response to his Attorney General’s letter, Kellyanne’s husband and Joe Biden kissing the back of a woman’s head.
Pay attention. This won’t end well.
Wes Clark Jr. 