Worst Case Scenarios

I believe our constitutional system will triumph over Trumpism. But for those of you who like to scare the fuck out of yourselves, I thought I’d come up with a couple of plausible scenarios for how the next two years could play out if Trump is willing to go all the way with his threats.

I base these scenarios on the assumption that Trump is in fact guilty of most of what readers of Seth Abramson’s twitter feed would be familiar, that calls for impeachment will grow and that Trump would lose a fair election in 2020.  The scenarios are ranked from most likely to least likely.

FIGHTING IN THE STREETS

The Democrats launch impeachment hearings in the next 18 months. The evidence of high crimes and misdemeanors is overwhelming. Mitch’s Senate does nothing. Protests build to impeach. A few Senate Republicans waiver in support of Trump. Commander Babyfingers call on his supporters to save him.  Portland-style clashes in several American cities escalate with agents provocateurs encouraging violence. Inevitable gunfire, casualties and civil disorder allow the President to use emergency powers, censoring the “divisive” media and blaming his Democratic opponents for the violence. Active “resistors” get intimidating visits from homeland security or deputized mercenaries.   People watch what they say. The regime continues packing the courts and restaffing the law enforcement and defense bureaucracies.

ENVIRONMENTAL FALSE FLAG

They’ve already come for the immigrants, so the next threat to be dealt with is the environmental movement.  Pipeline protests will gain steam again this summer. The movement was heavily infiltrated during Standing Rock by mercenaries working for oil companies. In the next protest flare-up, mercenaries (or Russians) attack either the KXL or DAPL pipeline – causing a massive spill.  This would allow Trump to claim it was an environmental terror attack and to begin rounding up and jailing members of multiple environmental movements.

This is a twofer for the oil companies: they eliminate domestic opposition to hydrocarbons and they get to collect insurance on the damaged pipeline. Why would the pipeline company care about insurance? Infrastructure like pipelines are designed and financially modeled out to 20 years. Does anyone believe (with fair elections) we’ll be allowing mass quantities of Alberta tar sands to be piped into the US in 20 years? In 10 years? The only way to make the money back would be to destroy it and collect the insurance. It sounds like a mafia solution but let’s not forget what Trump and his cohorts are: mobsters.

This is the cheapest, easiest solution for Trump that doesn’t require destroying the FBI or massive disruption to American business (except those directly affected by the spill). The Republicans can tar their political opponents who want to fight climate change (all Democrats at least in word) as terror supporters, allowing them to gaslight just enough Americans for Trump to gain an election victory in 2020.

THE PEACE MARCH

Trump decides to beat his chest and threatens war with Iran in the run up to the elections. He stirs up a protest movement against pending (maybe) war with Iran (or anyone else who seems convenient).  At the largest demonstration, a sniper murders antiwar protesters, the media reports it’s a right winger but, surprise, it’s a (any sect that seems convenient) Muslim.  The President then accuses the anti-war opposition of being traitors. A larger peace march is called the next weekend. Instigators infiltrate the protests to produce what appears to be a riot. The President then declares martial law.

THE COUP

Putin learns the date the SCO/FBI plan the big racketeering takedown.  The day before, multiple FBI Offices are bombed around the country by white supremacists in coordination with a Russian cyber attack to shut down electrical and communications infrastructure around the country with emphasis on nuclear power plants.  Trump declares martial law and the country suffers both communication and electrical blackouts for longer than a week, producing the riots Trump and his acolytes want. A mixture of Erik Prince’s people, organized crime and Russians use the chaos to target a few thousand individuals on a list, like MBS did, to shake them down, ensure their loyalty, or get rid of them. By the time the lights and phones come back on, news and the internet are censored via the President’s emergency powers. A bunch of lawyers, reporters and troublesome officials are missing and Trumpists can come up with any crazy story to explain/justify what just happened.

KOREAN WAR 2.0

In a fifteen minute war caused by Trump miscalculation, North Korea launches ICBMs at Hawaii and the West Coast before being hit with the annihilating counter-strike. Trump seizes the mantle of nuclear war victor and 4 blue states lie in radioactive ruin.  Trump wins re-election as Hawaii, California, Oregon and Washington no longer exist, Republicans have permanent control of all three branches of government. Bonus points – Republicans make a profit redeveloping “free” land on the West Coast with Russian and Chinese money.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES

Any of these scenarios could be stopped at any time by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Justice Department or the Senate. Each could also have a variation where Putin or China launch nukes while the U.S. is in disarray. Each could also end  in dictatorship, civil war, revolution or something in between.

As unlikely as these scenarios may sound, we have a malignant narcissist who’s been threatening violence since he threw his hat in the ring and the walls are rapidly closing in on him. He is supported by people both foreign and domestic who want political violence in the United States.

It sounds outlandish but so is the very idea that Donald Trump is President.

The Thin Ice – Pink Floyd